By Esther Onyegbula

ThinkBusiness Africa has sharply criticized a recent proposal by the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) to increase Nigeria’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) tax by 1,200 percent, calling it “statistically inconsistent and economically risky.”

The rebuke follows the release of CAPPA’s May 2025 report, “Junk on Our Plates: Exposing Deceptive Marketing of Unhealthy Foods Across Seven States in Nigeria,” which recommended raising the current ₦10 per litre SSB tax to ₦130 per litre. CAPPA linked rising rates of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension to SSB consumption and accused beverage companies of manipulating public perception through culturally tailored advertising.

But in a detailed counter-analysis, ThinkBusiness Africa, a respected policy and economic intelligence firm led by economist Dr. Ogho Okiti, dismissed CAPPA’s recommendations as lacking both empirical grounding and economic foresight.

“You cannot credibly propose a 1200 percent increase in any tax without first evaluating the impact of the existing policy,” said Dr. Okiti. “Policy decisions must be rooted in evidence, not just urgency. The risk of overreach is high, both in economic disruption and public trust.”

ThinkBusiness Africa’s review accuses CAPPA of relying on outdated and mismatched datasets. The organization highlighted discrepancies such as drawing policy implications for adolescent males, identified as the highest consumers of sugary drinks, based on obesity statistics from sedentary adult women. Additionally, it criticized CAPPA for asserting the failure of the current ₦10/litre SSB tax without citing any comprehensive evaluation of its impact since its implementation in 2022.

“The absence of any national assessment of the tax’s effectiveness is a glaring omission,” said Dr. Okiti, warning that policy-making on health must be backed by context-specific data.

Dr. Okiti warned that a steep tax increase would disproportionately affect small and medium-sized enterprises and could significantly harm Nigeria’s beverage industry. The sector, already burdened by an effective tax rate of around 45 percent, including corporate income tax, VAT, and tertiary education tax, could face severe pressure if an additional ₦130/litre excise is imposed.

“Such a drastic measure could trigger price hikes, job losses, and contraction across supply chains,” he said. “It could also shrink the tax base, defeating its own fiscal purpose.”

The report also counters CAPPA’s narrative that Nigeria is suffering from excessive sugar consumption. Citing data from the National Sugar Development Council, ThinkBusiness Africa notes that Nigeria’s per capita sugar intake stood at just 6.9kg in 2018, significantly lower than in other West African countries.

“Framing Nigeria as a sugar-saturated society is misleading and ignores broader dietary realities,” the review states.

CAPPA’s projection that a 39 percent retail price increase would lead to a 29 percent reduction in SSB consumption among youths was also scrutinized. ThinkBusiness Africa argued that the forecast fails to account for possible knock-on effects, such as informal market substitution, reduced production output, and rising inflation.

The review further observed that the World Health Organization (WHO) has not listed SSB taxation as one of its “Best Buy” interventions for non-communicable disease prevention, highlighting the global uncertainty around the long-term cost-effectiveness of such taxes.

Rather than aggressive taxation, ThinkBusiness Africa advocates a multi-pronged approach. The organization urged the government to focus on existing regulatory enforcement, especially regarding product labeling, trans fats, and misleading health claims, and to invest in grassroots public health campaigns, including school nutrition education and physical activity promotion.

Crucially, it also called for a Total Dietary Intake Study to assess consumption patterns across demographic groups, and a Regulatory Impact Assessment before any new taxes are introduced.

Beyond the policy debate, ThinkBusiness Africa questioned the transparency of the SSB tax regime since its introduction.

“There has been no public disclosure of how much revenue the sugar tax has generated or how it has been used,” said Dr. Okiti. “Without accountability, the tax loses both its moral authority and its economic justification.”

The pushback comes at a time when Nigeria is grappling with severe economic headwinds, rising inflation, youth unemployment, and stagnating manufacturing. According to Dr. Okiti, these challenges necessitate policy caution rather than what he terms “trigger-happy fiscalism.”

“Health policy must not be detached from economic reality,” he said. “If public health is the stated goal, Nigerians deserve more than rhetorical activism, they deserve data, deliberation, and transparency.”

As the debate intensifies, ThinkBusiness Africa’s intervention shifts the spotlight from advocacy to accountability, raising urgent questions about the evidence, execution, and equity behind Nigeria’s public health taxes.