By Yusuff Adebisi Adebayo

A new comparative policy analysis is sparking debate over Nigeria’s approach to tobacco control, as health experts point to lessons from New Zealand’s progressive harm reduction strategy and South Africa’s more restrictive, but less effective, model.

The report, titled A Tale of Two Nations, draws a sharp contrast between New Zealand’s use of scientifically backed harm reduction tools and South Africa’s prohibitionist tactics, which have inadvertently fueled black market sales and done little to cut smoking rates.

Global health advocate and author of the report, Yusuff Adebayo Adebisi, argues that Nigeria must urgently shift course to avoid repeating South Africa’s missteps. “Taxation and public warnings are important, but they are not enough,” he said. “We need a smarter strategy that gives smokers safer alternatives and supports their transition through education and responsible regulation.”

New Zealand’s public health success has been driven by access to reduced-risk products such as nicotine pouches, vapes, and heated tobacco, all underpinned by strong public education campaigns like Vape to Quit Strong. The country has complemented this with reduced taxes on safer alternatives and consistent messaging about their lower risks.

Backed by data from Public Health England, which finds vaping to be 95% less harmful than smoking, New Zealand is on track to become a smoke-free society by 2025.

“These products are not risk-free,” Adebisi acknowledged, “but when compared to combustible cigarettes, the difference in harm is substantial, and that distinction saves lives.”

South Africa, on the other hand, has struggled with policy enforcement and unintended consequences. A COVID-era ban on tobacco sales led to a surge in illicit trade, counterfeit products, and unregulated consumption. Despite the fallout, the country remains hesitant to adopt a harm reduction framework. Today, 20% of South African adults continue to smoke, with little progress on cessation support.

“Instead of helping people quit, the ban pushed them toward unregulated markets,” Adebisi said. “It’s a public health and governance failure Nigeria must not repeat.”

Nigeria currently leans heavily on taxation, warning labels, and smoke-free policies. While these are standard tools under the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), experts say they are insufficient on their own, particularly in a country where smoking-related diseases remain a rising burden.

Adebisi recommends Nigeria legalize and regulate safer nicotine alternatives to reduce harm and bring the growing shadow market under state oversight. “Without regulation, we either open the door to chaos or shut it to progress,” he said. “We need balanced oversight, not bans or blind deregulation.”

Central to the harm reduction approach is differentiated taxation. Adebisi warns that taxing all nicotine products equally removes financial incentives for smokers to switch to safer options. “Fiscal policy must reflect the spectrum of risk,” he said.

He also emphasized the role of public education: “Many Nigerians don’t even know safer alternatives exist, or how they work. Informed choices require informed citizens.”

To track progress, the report calls for dynamic policy tools and data-driven monitoring systems that allow for real-time adjustments. “We need to know what’s working, what’s not, and act quickly,” Adebisi said.

Sweden’s low smoking rate, just 5.6%, the lowest in Europe, is largely attributed to widespread use of smokeless tobacco like snus. Similarly, New Zealand’s policies show that empowering consumers through access and information yields better public health outcomes than punitive restrictions.

“These countries reduced harm not by banning tobacco outright, but by offering better choices,” Adebisi said. “Nigeria can do the same, if we’re willing to be evidence-driven, transparent, and bold.”

As Nigeria weighs its next steps in tobacco control, experts say the choice is clear: emulate nations that are reducing harm through innovation and education, or risk replicating the failures of restrictive, enforcement-heavy policies.

“We’re not just fighting tobacco, we’re fighting the damage it causes,” Adebisi said. “That fight needs smarter weapons, not just bigger hammers.”

Yussuff Adebayo is Global Director for Research and Thought Leadership at Global Health Focus.