By Musa Ibrahim

With the military authority’s appointment of Dr. Kamal Idris as Prime Minister, Sudan has entered a new phase of political friction and latent power struggles among centers of influence that have accumulated since the outbreak of war in April 2023. While the appointment is officially framed as a step toward restoring governance and reestablishing state institutions, many observers interpret it as an attempt to revive old alliances and entrench exclusionary practices under the veneer of nominal “civility.”

Though Idris is a technocratic figure with an international background, the timing of his appointment and the opaque manner in which it was carried out raise critical questions about the nature and actual authority of the incoming government. Early indicators suggest that this move was not the product of broad consultation or national consensus, but rather a short-term political maneuver shaped by shifting battlefield dynamics and mounting regional and international pressure.

Tactical Opening or Political Maneuvering?

Within this complex equation, multiple reports suggest that Idris’s appointment came in response to external pressure aimed at crafting a civilian façade to polish the military’s image in the eyes of the international community. This comes amid deepening isolation and a tightening regime of Western sanctions against Sudan’s military leadership. Journalist Sabah Mohamed Al-Hassan, writing for Al-Jarida, noted that the new government lacks genuine political backing and is effectively managed by the inner circle surrounding General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.

Al-Hassan also cited former U.S. Ambassador to Sudan, Timothy Michael Carney, who declared that the current government has become “internationally ostracized”, a shift reflected in the increasingly harsh tone of U.S. diplomatic language toward Port Sudan’s military authorities. This diplomatic escalation coincided with the announcement of new American sanctions on the Sudanese army for the alleged use of chemical weapons, suggesting that the formation of the new government may be more about damage control than a substantive shift in governance.

Rising Tensions Between Allies: Islamists and Armed Movements

While Al-Burhan portrays the new government as a reform initiative, many actors within Sudan’s political scene see it as a repackaging of entrenched power structures under new labels. Behind the scenes, a fierce struggle is unfolding between the Islamist wing tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and the armed movements that fought alongside the army against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), particularly in Darfur and Kordofan.

A report by the Sudanese Communist Party describes Idris’s appointment as a “civilian façade” designed to facilitate the return of regime remnants, accusing regional powers of supporting this direction. The report warns that armed movements risk being sidelined in favor of Islamist elements reemerging in technocratic guise.

Tensions are especially acute over the division of sovereign ministries, foremost among them, the Ministry of Minerals, which holds immense value due to its control over gold revenues.

Cross-cutting information points to Al-Burhan’s efforts to secure this ministry for his loyalists, particularly by blocking access to armed groups representing Darfur, such as the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Minni Arko Minnawi and the Justice and Equality Movement headed by Jibril Ibrahim.

Marginalization, Polarization, and Unspoken Grievances

Amid these power struggles, deeper concerns are surfacing regarding fair representation within state institutions, especially for groups that fought alongside the army but continue to face unequal treatment. The Zaghawa tribe, to which prominent leaders like Minnawi belong, provides a stark example. Despite their fighters’ participation against the RSF, numerous reports point to widespread feelings of exclusion within the military and intelligence services.

Minnawi himself has stated that intelligence classifications within the army prevent members of the Zaghawa, Masalit, and Fur communities from being promoted to senior ranks, labeling them as “security threats”, a designation that effectively bars them from decision-making roles.

This discrimination has reportedly extended beyond administrative bias to include suspicions of disloyalty, as illustrated by the controversial killing of Major General Ihab Youssef Al-Tayeb, commander of the Kordofan mobile units. His death sparked widespread speculation, with veiled accusations leveled against Zaghawa fighters in his unit, culminating in the arrest of commander Abdallah Janna, widely seen as a signal of distrust.

An Uncertain Future Amid Eroding Trust

Taken together, these dynamics place the incoming government in a precarious position, caught between ongoing military conflicts, frayed alliances, and dire economic and humanitarian conditions. With Islamist forces seeking to reclaim influence, armed groups fighting to secure their positions, and marginalized communities demanding recognition, the prospect of genuine stability remains remote.

Ultimately, whatever its composition, the new government will remain hostage to the realities of war and the logic of armed power, unless a fundamental shift occurs toward a comprehensive political settlement that ensures equitable representation, halts the bloodshed, and rebuilds trust between the state and its people.