…OPEC says it is 1.560m bpd

By Udeme Akpan, Energy Editor

THE execution of Nigeria’s 2025 N54.99 trillion budget appears to be facing more challenges as the main source of funding, crude oil, suffered production decline.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, crude oil output including condensate, dropped month-on-month, MoM, by 3.8 per cent to 1.671 million barrels per day, bpd, in February 2025, from 1.737 million bpd in January 2025.

The 2025 Budget is based on oil production of 2.06 million bpd, $75 per barrel and revenue target of N36.35 trillion with 56 per cent coming from oil sales.

Of the 1.671 million bpd output, crude oil and condensate accounted for 1.465 million bpd and 206,948 bpd, respectively.

However, on year-on-year, YoY, basis, the NUPRC, which made the disclosure in its report titled, ‘‘Crude Oil and Condensate Production’’, the February 2025 output level is a marginal increase from 1.539 million bpd recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

The report, stated: “The daily average production in February was 1,671,953 barrels per day, comprising of both Crude oil (1,465,006 bopd) and condensate (206,948 bopd). The average crude oil production was 98% of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).”

However, in its report – March 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR – released yesterday, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, put Nigeria’s oil output, excluding condensate at 1.560 million bpd in February 2025, indicating a marginal drop from 1.526 million bpd in January 2025.

OPEC said its data was based on information obtained from secondary sources, adding that when data obtained from direct communication were reviewed, the nation’s oil output stood at 1.465 million bpd in February 2025, indicating a significant drop of 4.8 per cent from 1.539 million bpd recorded in January 2025.

The country’s oil output woes was worsened by instability in the global oil market, which saw prices, including that of Nigeria’s Bonny Light hovering at $70.90 per barrel, yesterday, indicating more than $4 below the budget benchmark of $75 per barrel.

In his recent interview with Vanguard, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf, said: “This development has negative implications for the budget because our budget benchmark is $75 per barrel. Now, we are having oil price below $70 per barrel and the prognosis is that it may remain at this level or possibly even lower, especially if President Donald Trump is able to achieve a breakthrough with the peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. It has implications for the budget from a revenue point of view. It also has implications from a foreign exchange point of view. These are the two major implications that it has as far as our economic management is concerned.”