By Coulibaly Mamadou

France’s recent moves to revise its military strategy in Africa, following the Defense Council’s recent meetings, have sparked a wave of speculation and concern. The official line from the Élysée is clear: France claims it’s scaling back permanent military bases in countries like Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Gabon, planning instead to hand over control of these locations to local governments. However, many observers see this not as a full retreat but a shift in strategy, meant to maintain French influence under the guise of cooperation.

A key report by Jean-Marie Bockel, a special envoy for French President Emmanuel Macron, is expected soon, and it may reveal details about France’s future role in Africa. For some, this document symbolizes a potential turning point in Franco-African relations. But critics argue that it’s simply a cover for a sustained presence, as France shifts from direct military involvement to advisory roles, establishing training centers and organizing joint military exercises.

At a glance, the plan seems straightforward: reduce French troops and let African governments take charge of the bases. Yet, on closer examination, this could be seen as more of a rebranding than an exit. France’s reorganization involves setting up temporary detachments and joint training facilities, which some believe will keep Paris’s influence intact, albeit in a less conspicuous form. This “withdrawal” is perceived by some analysts as a reconfiguration aimed at countering the anti-French sentiment that has surged across Africa, particularly following the expulsion of French forces from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

A closer look at the situation in Côte d’Ivoire sheds light on France’s shifting tactics. Here, discussions continue between Ivorian and French officials over the future of French forces stationed in Abidjan. The supposed handover of control is tempered by the fact that new training facilities are already in the process of being created. September’s joint exercises in Bouaké are a testament to the ongoing, if modified, French military presence in the country.

Despite the rhetoric of a cooperative restructuring, many African geopolitical experts argue that France’s approach is nothing more than a masked neocolonial tactic to secure its strategic interests. The pivot to “military partnerships” and “joint training” is widely viewed as a way to sidestep criticism while still exerting significant control in the region. These partnerships ostensibly serve to maintain stability but may come at the cost of true sovereignty for African nations.

Burkina Faso’s transitional president, Ibrahim Traoré, recently accused France of establishing a “center of destabilization operations” in Abidjan, hinting at what some see as a shadowy network of influence aimed at countering the growing strength of the Sahel States Alliance. This coalition, formed by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, is gaining ground as a political and military bloc focused on reducing French influence in the region.

Within African civil society, particularly among pan-Africanists, calls are growing for an outright end to French military presence on the continent. They argue that France’s continued role in training African soldiers undermines national security, as French instructors inevitably gain detailed knowledge of these forces’ weaknesses. As a Senegalese commentator put it, “How can we claim sovereignty when we are reliant on former colonial powers for military training?” Another echoed the sentiment, stating, “If France wants to secure its borders, let them keep their bases in France, not in Senegal.”

Many believe that Africa’s extensive human capital is more than capable of building its own military expertise without outside influence. As long as African armies depend on French training and guidance, it’s difficult for these nations to establish the full autonomy they seek. France, while adapting to regional opposition, is still widely seen as attempting to control Africa’s security landscape from behind the scenes.

In contrast to France’s evolving tactics, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) has taken a distinctly anti-French stance, pushing to address regional security concerns independently. Formed in 2023, the AES has already shown success in countering threats without French involvement, aiming to fortify the region’s self-sufficiency in addressing security issues. This approach highlights the contrasting paths: one where African nations lead their defense independently and another where France maintains a foothold in Africa, albeit in a subtler manner.

As France tries to balance reducing tensions with retaining influence, its redefined strategy leaves open questions. Will these tactics allow France to sustain a role in African security, or will African nations seize this moment to redefine their futures entirely?