By CHARLES ONUNAIJU

Whatever the outcome of the US presidential election which will hold on the November 5, it will present to Africa with both a challenge and opportunity. Already Mr. Donald Trump, former US president, is the formal nominee of his Republican party and Mrs. Kamala Harris, current Vice-President, has inherited the Democratic party nomination of former candidate Joe Biden and is now presidential candidate of the party.

The obvious prospective outcome of the November presidential poll that is certain is that one of the two will be elected the President of the United States, barring any unforeseen development. Vice President Harris, is on the momentous threshold of history, if she manages to pull off a victory that will see her become the first female US President in the over 200 years of the country’s history.

However, each of the candidates like the previous leaders of the country, since Barak Obama, would offer very little in terms of critical tangibles in relations with Africa. That does not mean that Africa would be struck off the maps in the Oval Presidential Office, State Department (Foreign Affairs Ministry), or even the Pentagon (the Defence Ministry). It is just in the nature US statecraft, when there is a clash between the choice of values and interest, the rational pick is the latter. Many countries in Africa, including Nigeria, emphasize shared values of liberal democracy with the United States, and while this is true, it does not in reality shape the US policy. Like every other nation, foreign policy is organised to generate returns of critical aggregates that translate to strength, influence and national power.

Currently, the United States have quite a number of domestic challenges that would influence the direction of her foreign policy. Despite what appears like a gulf of differences between the candidates of the two major parties, their approach to foreign policy would be the same. The US post-industrial economy has failed to deliver broad dividends, thereby massively excluding a huge swath of citizens.

The Republican candidate, Mr. Donald Trump, laments the country’s massive deindustrialisation, which he said currently stand at 64%. His solution is to massively increase import tariffs in what he thinks would lure industries back to the United States. The flip side of this strategy, however, is that imported finished products will be expensive for the working families he claimed to fight for and due to labour costs and other related factors of production, product manufacturings in the United States will not be reasonably cost effective as to be competitive.

However, these basic economic facts will not deter a President Donald Trump from launching a wide ranging trade war, especially with China and even Europe, whose consequences Africa must proactively anticipate and build the necessary resilience with a view to optimise the opportunities and minimise the risks associated with it. The fledgling Africa Growth Opportunity Act, AGOA, established since 2000, but has languished because of extensive political meddlings by the US successive administrations, will further drown into irrelevance as the incoming adminstration, whether Republican or Democratic party will erect further high walls of tariff. Meanwhile , Africa’s economic prospects of growth and sustainable development lay substantially in trade and investments and only a paltry of this essential economic oxygen can come from the United States and the global West.

The Democratic party’s presumptive nominee may not have starkly outlined trade policy as her Republican rival has done, but would do much of the same, with the difference being only regards to the intensity of the rhetoric.

With ballooning crime, gun violence and rising racial tensions in the US, candidate Trump see the only solution in building high-fence border walls to deter what he called “invasion” of criminals, rapists whom he claimed are deliberately unleashed on the US from prisons and mental homes from across the world . He has promised to start from his “Day One” in office to deport undocumented immigrants. Despite that the United States has historically benefitted from been a melting pot, with relative open borders that attracted talents, from across the world, demonising migrants as the cause of all US contemporary domestic troubles, is the new rallying point for US political elites across party lines. Vice President Kamala Harris has been uptick in the anti-migrant rhetoric too.

Largely, a problem of poorly managed economic transition, that left a huge swath of the population at the bottom, the US economic and social troubles, for which its elites disproportionately blame on migration, with its consequent  policy choices, has ramification for the expectations of US-Africa relations. More importantly, the critical inputs to address the structural lacunas in the US economy will objectively have little coming from Africa and, therefore, the task and challenge of US economic recovery will not be considerably consequential to her relations with Africa.

To this effect, the leadership that would emerge from the November election will focus largely on dealing with broad range of domestic issues and the consequent foreign policy direction would be essentially transactional. However, no matter the weight and the attention to domestic issues which the administration might be devoted to, the US is still the world sole superpower, the wealthiest and even the most influential and, therefore, relations with Washington is considerably consequential for any country or region.

The challenge for Africa is, therefore, despite ranking low in US foreign policy priorities, within the context of Washington domestic top concerns, how to maintain strategic visibility. 

In recent times, U.S attention to Africa has been largely on geo-political considerations with an only strategic and limited aim of cutting down or reducing what Washington considers the outsize influence and impact of China and to a lesser degree, Russia in Africa. This also offers some opportunity for Africa to leverage her strategic competitiveness as a geo-political entity of interest to major powers.

But the opportunity for a more inward- looking America for Africa is even more enormous. Africa can pivot to vital global centres most likely to bring the tangible inputs necessary to support durable resilience in African economies for sustainable and inclusive growth.

Already, China is delivering quite a lot in the regard, offering critical and enabling infrastructures, investments, trade and others. While the U.S was engulfed with chaos, in mid July following the attempted assassination of the Republican Presidential candidate, Mr. Donald Trump and the sudden  withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the Presidential race, the governing Communist Party of China (CPC) held crucial Third Plenary session of the Party’s 20th Central Committee and made far-reaching decision, including more market access to Africa and the rest of the world to China’s huge market.

An inward-looking America, more pragmatically concerned with economic recovery and other extentially domestic issues, would not only be less sensitive to such pivot, but would not automatically consider such pivot as ideological heresy. Africa can leverage a less meddlesome America to consolidate on the diversification of her international partnerships.

Already, China has proven a strategically dependable partner and other countries in the pacific and Indian oceans are prospective partners with possibilities for tangible returns for Africa vital needs of trade and investments. India, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand are all potential partners with prospects to generate the type of tangible inputs that Africa needs.

The U.S Presidential election in November is the country’s internal affair, with doubtless international significance not least because Washington is vital in resolving most of the big global issues. Whether is President Donald J. Trump or President Kamala Harris, what happens in Washington will continue to matter to the world, and Africa’s enormous soft power which consist in the main, the African-American community will remain an important bridge of the U.S-Africa relations. Despite several multilayered ties with the United States, Africa must recognize that the sole superpower will have only marginal impact in the area of economic cooperation with practical results for the region.

America’s traditional security concerns in Africa has always focused on the symptoms rather that the root causes and has consequently had little effects on the security challenges in the continent and it will be important that Africa makes the U.S to listen to her, if Washington truly want to be a credible security partner.

One thing very discernable about America’s international behavior is that durability of her partnership is contingent on her shifting internal politics and cannot be relied on in the long term. Africa’s long march to economic goal of sustained and inclusive growth, and stability require long-term players who can be trusted through the twists and turns of the evolving international landscape. And in this regards, Africa can borrow a leaf from the sturdy Vietnam’s “Bamboo Diplomacy” which emphasizes flexibility and pragmatism but with independence and national interests as the solid root. Bamboo is a symbol of longevity because of its durability, strength, flexibility and resilience. Africa’s bamboo tree is even more sturdier with capability to bend in several directions while deeply rooted in the soil.

While it,s important to maintain relation with the sole super power or to be seen to maintain relation with her and even keep her sweet, no matter the outcome of it,s November election, is even more important to recognize and cultivate the type of other vital International partnership that can deliver on the critical tangibles necessary for Africa,s economic reconstruction and social stability.

*Onunaijiu is Research Director, Abuja-based Think Tank