Degeneration and advance are not fixed processes, but recurring in cycles in the history of every nation”,  — John Buchan, 1875-1940

CONDUCTING a credible and hitch-free national population and housing census in Nigeria is a vital undertaking that must be approached with all seriousness and determination. The essence of government is to provide continuity in a predictable and relatively stable policy environment. The credibility of a democratic government is, therefore, judged by its ability to take decisive actions on matters of critical national importance. The ability to conduct a successful national head-count at specific intervals is one of such exercises by which the capacity of a government can be judged or ascertained. 

Population management has become an intricate science that requires long-term projections and programming of priorities. Nigeria should therefore, no longer be allowed to drift on the basis of unverified hypothetical figures about its population size which has been revolving around the figure of 220 million or thereabouts. The United Nations has established the timeline of ten years for the conduct of national census in any given country. In Nigeria, such an exercise was last conducted 17 years ago, making it a long overdue but necessary project.

An opportunity to put the ability of this government to the test may likely present itself soon in Nigeria, with the announcement on 8th November 8, 2023, of the launching of the Electronic Civil Registration and Vital Statistics System by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The same day, the appointment of 20 Federal Commissioners for the National Population Commission, NPC, by the President was also announced. The affirmation by President Tinubu to conduct a credible national census and the spirited debates in the House of Representatives on the issue, should provide the much desired impetus towards holding a controversy-free exercise in the country.

The earlier plan to hold such an exercise in 2023 was abruptly shelved by the Buhari administration towards the tail end of its second term in office. The reasons for the cancellation should not be far-fetched or difficult to fathom. Despite the huge sums allocated for the exercise, conditions proved unsuitable across the country to embark on such a sensitive exercise, especially in the politically-charged pre-election atmosphere in the country at that time. The displacement of Nigerians from virtually all the geopolitical zones except the South-West and South-South, meant that any results emanating from such an exercise in those unstable zones would only be tentative and not definitive.

Moreover, the volatile mix of general elections and national census would have proved too risky to execute almost simultaneously, which was prevented from happening by wiser counsel and better judgment. The capturing and registering of all Nigerians is the essence of a national head-count. The organisation, timing, resourcing and the momentum of the exercise, will inevitably contribute to its ultimate success. It is also vital that the trust deficit in all government activities across the country is addressed early before the onset of the census exercise in order to instill confidence in the integrity of the final results.

Going ahead with this exercise must, therefore, not be based on political expedience but on sound and critical national planning needs and development perspectives. It might be advantageous for the Tinubu administration to proceed with the conduct of the national census very early on in its first term. This should give the administration the opportunity to leverage on the results to develop viable and concrete national planning strategies as well as human development policies.

This should be the more reason why the exercise must be conducted with prudence, deliberation and caution. Censuses are conducted among other reasons, to help streamline national development polices and establish accurate baselines for implementation of programmes. Likewise, they can be handy in demarcation of political constituencies for electoral purposes, or the delimitation of internal boundaries. Also, censuses could be helpful in not only determining the aggregate number of people that are contained in a country, but also in making reliable projections about future population trends. They likewise help to provide disaggregated data that would be useful indices for the purposes of planning and establishment of databases.

Censuses could also be used in determining how national fiscal and resource allocations policies could be carried out, and how funds could be allocated to sectors like education, health, housing, infrastructure, food security and other important activities. National security strategies and policies could also be crafted around accurate census figures, especially in determining the size of a national police force, the armed forces and other security establishments.

To be concluded next week