February 5, 2023

2023 presidential election likely to go into second runoff — Research Experts

2023 Election


By Johnbosco Agbakwuru, Abuja

As the Nigerian electorate prepares to cast their votes in the February 25 presidential election, research experts from Nextier SPD have submitted that a recent face-to-face nationwide poll on Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections shows Labour Party, LP, is leading the voters’ preference at 37 per cent of the survey respondents.

The experts also said that the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, secured 27 percent of the survey responses, while the All Progressives Congress, APC, secured 24 percent, with the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, at six percent.

Nextier, an Africa-focused consulting firm, said it conducted its second presidential poll on Friday, January 27, 2023, four weeks before the scheduled presidential elections. The team used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of two percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

It submitted that, “Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory. None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states.”

The survey results the group said “show that Labour Party can achieve 25 percent of the votes in 23 states. Therefore, the presidential election could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.”

It contended that, “Most registered voters (72 percent) have decided on their preferred party. This result is consistent across rural and urban voters. Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices.

“Eighty-three percent of the respondents indicated that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the elections. It is important to note that the survey questionnaire showed the party logos and names instead of the candidates’ names or images.

“Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election could be significantly higher than in 2019. For instance, 77 percent of respondents indicated that they will vote in this election, while 63 percent stated that they “will definitely vote. This level of commitment was consistent across all age and gender demographics in rural and urban communities

“Despite the voter commitment, turnout could be depressed by a combination of factors: Insecurity, concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Only 52 percent of the respondents trust that the elections will be free and fair. Only 47 percent of respondents trust that INEC will not manipulate the results.

“Radio (33 percent) and WhatsApp/social media (29 percent) should be the key communication channels for political parties ahead of the election day. About 16 percent of respondents said they get information on the candidates and the political parties from their families and friends.

“The same percentage get their information from television. Only two percent get their information from their religious leaders, while one percent get theirs from traditional leaders. There are slight variations between urban and rural voters.”

Nextier Founding Partner, Patrick O. Okigbo Ill, in the report stated that the presidential election is shaping to be one of the most keenly contested races in recent decades.

He said, “It is exciting to see Nigerians take their civic responsibilities seriously.”

He confirmed that, in addition to the two national polls, Nextier would continue to provide data analysis and insights on Nigeria’s elections and other development issues.

In summary, “although the Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections will likely go into a second-round runoff with Peter Obi and one of either Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu. See the graphs on the next page.”

Nextier is a multi-competency Africa-focused consulting firm with core competencies in strategy, finance, policy research, analysis, design, and implementation.

The firm combines management consulting skills with a deep understanding of the public sector to solve complex development challenges.

Nextier works across several verticals, including energy, health, security, and governance