By Dr. Charles Olisa

After observing the painful impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the socio-economic lives of Nigerians and Nigeria’s and world economies, I have sent a memorandum to the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 on how to urgently put the Nigerian economy on a sound footing and save the lives of the very vulnerably poor Nigerians and the rest of us.

The 23-point memo is entitled “Government should consider easing restrictions to save the nation’s fragile economy and prevent the vulnerable poor who rely on daily subsistence for survival dying from hunger and starvation.”

It reads: On the front line, the Presidency first announced a two weeks lockdown on March 30, 2020 for Lagos, Ogun and FCT leading to most states government queuing into the Federal Government lockdown policy. This undoubtedly gave rise to the complete halt down of all business operations both formal and informal sectors in the country.

Again, due to the increased cases of the COVID-19 infestation, the Presidency further extended the lockdown in April 13,2020 for another two weeks in other to mitigate and flatten the curves of the spread of the scourge.

Sir, I honestly appreciate government guidelines and measures as it relates to mitigating the coronavirus outbreak that is hinged on the popular parlance “health is wealth.”

As a matter of fact, the imposed extensive quarantine measures by the Nigeria Centre for Diseases control (NCDC) and Federal Government such as travels restrictions, lockdown, social distancing, among others, are quite commendable.

At present, the imposition of dusk to dawn curfew as a way of preventing further infestation of this dreaded disease is highly welcomed.

However, this measure raises great socio-economic and health concerns arising from the mono-cultural fragile national economy and also a situation whereby the large populace rely on daily income from subsistence economic activities.

These concerns, among others as for third world countries like Nigeria are abrupt collapse of oil price in global crude market, declination of production of goods and services, a sharp drop in GDP, rising joblessness, collapse of medium and small businesses and credit market, increase in criminal activities, lack of access to basic health care needs, and others too numerous to mention.

From socio-economic point of view, it is a truism that Nigeria economy was sputtering even before the outbreak of coronavirus in Nigeria; the lockdown ordered by some state governors and the Federal Government to curb the virus, which has thus far been hugely disruptive, is an apparent recipe for economic disaster If the lockdown is not brought to a halt or reviewed to sustain our economy.

I am not a doomsayer, but I am confident that extended or lengthy lockdown will hurt our already fragile economy in a way we have never experienced since the creation of Nigeria. The point is that, the longer the lockdown lasts, the more it will sting our economy, which will definitely have adverse implications on the socio-economic health of Nigerians.

Consequently, some nations are cautiously beginning to ease restrictions on businesses to avert possible economic devastation of extended or lengthy lockdown. For example, people in the Czech Republic can now shop at hardware and bicycle stores. Austria has reopened smaller stores. Across Germany, smaller stores were allowed to open for the first time in nearly a month, under initial measures to ease restrictions imposed in March as the coronavirus outbreak grew.

Spain, where more than 18,000 people have died, has allowed manufacturing and construction work to resumed. Even our brother country, Ghana, which has had over 1,000 confirmed cases as of April 19, 2020 from the virus, the government has reopened businesses and stores but people are mandated to wear masks. This makes Ghana, the first country in Africa to ease her lockdown. After China, the above-mentioned nations are among the first to start feeling their way gradually out of the limits on daily life imposed by governments to curb the spread of the corona virus.

Unlike Ghana, in Nigeria, as at April 20, 2020, there has been fewer cases of COVID-19, 665 confirmed cases were reported with a total of 38 new cases. Thus, for the sake of our economy and in the interest of economic well-being of Nigerians, Nigerian government should follow suit and lift a partial lockdown on the federal capital,Lagos and some strategic states that have great economic value in order to revive the economy from its coronavirus shut-down.

Although, I am not oblivious of the risks involved to reopen economic activities amidst corona virus crisis, but not reopening the economy on time could have detrimental long-term effects on our economy as government will find it difficult to pay salaries and pensions of workers and retirees.

Companies will let go of their employees to survive the resultant economic downturn and this will inescapably increase unemployment rate. The country will go into deep recession and it will lead to serious economic crises which will definitely impact negatively on the overall well-being of Nigerians especially the middle class and vulnerable poor class.

These are some of the worst case scenarios to deal with if the lockdown may have to be extended by the government. I personally have also observed that the Nigerian economy has witnessed a big loss as a result of the ongoing lockdown that is occasioned by COVID-19 plague and if the lockdown is further extended by the government, it will cause a devastating blow on the economy.

One resultant effect of cessation of economic activities in the country is the decline in our GDP.

Currently, bonny light crude oil price has dropped from $28 per barrel to $12 per barrel. Added to the drop is the collapse of global demand for crude oil due to the lockdown of most economies. With the lockdown still in place, most businesses cannot run efficiently while those working remotely are not doing so at optimal capacity.

Statistics from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which are companies that employ between 11-100 people and has assets between 50-500 million Naira are shut down economically as a result of the pandemic.

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In Nigeria, SMEs make up over 70% of the country’s workforce and the sector provides daily subsistence income to families. With the current lockdown, the sector has been adversely affected, thereby causing hunger pandemic to many families.

Food and Agricultural organisation (FAO) estimates that as many as 25,000 people lose their lives everyday as a result of hunger and starvation globally.

Beyond food, most people now find it very difficult to pay hospital bills, and are either held up in the hospital or are being denied treatment even in government facilities. A good percentage of Nigerians are on essential daily medications which is now difficult to afford as a result of the continued lockdown. Whereas the fight against COVID 19 is germane, the approach and its economic implications, now predisposes people to avoidable complications and or health challenges from pre -existing illnesses and non-COVID19 related health issues,since as it where they find it difficult to access and pay for health services.

Against this backdrop, it is my candid opinion and recommendations that the following be looked into so that the country will not be totally grounded: That the lockdown should not be extended after these cumulative four weeks, otherwise, criminal activities might increase and also large percentage of people might die of starvation.

That the government at all levels should give priority attention to the re-opening of some critical sectors of the economy such as manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare, construction, SMEs etc while those quarantine measures are strictly maintained.

That price control mechanism be quickly adopted because of the arbitrariness created in the consumer’s market. That the government adopt the economic policies of the advanced economies of Mexico, China, Germany, etc by partially reopening the country for business.

Dusk to dawn curfew be imposed across the country. That official working hours of the formal sectors be reduced to 8am to 2pm to enable workers get home before curfew. That palliatives as a matter of urgency be distributed to all the vulnerable poor across the country. That no face mask, no movement policy be adopted across the country. However, the masks be distributed free of charge.

Social distancing rules be strictly adhered to even in workplaces. Security agencies to ensure strict compliances. Test kits be made handy at the state borders to allow testing of people travelling from one state to another.

Dr. Olisa, an All Progressives Congress, APC, chieftain and management consultant, wrote from Lagos.

Vanguard