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Nigeria’s terms of trade up 0.81% in Q4’19

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Import fell 3.27%; export down 2.6%

By Yinka Kolawole

Nigeria and new economic status in Africa
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The all-commodity Terms of Trade (ToT) index for Nigeria increased marginally by 0.81 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 (Q4’19) due to increases in the prices of vegetable products, live animals, animal products and prepared  foodstuffs.

This is even as the  all-commodity group import index fell by 3.27 percent while group export index decreased by 2.6 percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed these in its “Commodity Prices Indices and Terms of Trade Q4 2019” report, adding that the  increase is explained mainly by a 2.75 percent rise in the prices of goods traded with Asian countries.

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ToT represents the ratio of a country’s export prices to its import prices, and can be used as an indicator of an economy’s health.

An increase in ToT between two periods (or when ToT is greater than 100%) means that the value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the country can afford more imports for the same value of exports.

NBS stated: “The all-commodity group terms of trade index stood at 102.77 in October, 100.73 in November and 103.54 in December.

“This shows overall decrease of 1.99% in November and increase of 2.80% in December. On average, the terms of trade rose 0.81% between October and December.

“This was a result of increases in the prices of vegetable products (6.60%), Live animals (6.12%) and Prepared foodstuffs (+5.31%). It was, however, negatively offset by Articles of stone (-7.58%), Miscellaneous manufactured (-5.9%) and Products of chemical and allied industries (-2.83%).

“The All region group export index, on average, fell by 2.60% between October and December.  This was largely attributed to lower export prices to all regions, especially Europe. Month-on-month, the index fell by 1.20% in November and by 1.40% in December.

“Between October and November 2019, the monthly change in the All Region export index stood at -1.20%. This was a result of the decreases in export prices to Europe (-3.93%) and Oceania (-0.10%). Between November and December, the monthly change stood at -1.4%, attributable to decreases in the prices of exports to Africa (-2.54%) and America (-2.4%).

“The All Region group import index, on average, decreased by 3.27%, indicated by a 0.81% increase between October and November which was followed by a decline of 4.08% in December.

“The slight growth in November was due to increases in import prices from America (5.59%) and Africa (2.59%).  In December 2019, the All Region group import prices decreased by 4.08% due to declines in import prices across all 5 regions.”

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