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2019 general elections grew Nigeria’s Q1 GDP to 2.01% – NBS

As telecoms led non oil sector with 98.86% contribution

… Agriculture 19.11%

oil sector 9.14%

By Emmanuel Elebeke

The Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.01% (year-on-year), in real terms, in the first quarter of 2019.

Residents check their names on the electoral roll ahead of casting their votes at a polling station in Kaduna on March 9, 2019, as they prepare to vote in governorship elections. – Nigerians are voting for a second time in a fortnight in governorship and state assembly elections, with heightened concerns from observers of violence and an increased military presence. Elections for governors are being held in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states, for all state assemblies, plus the administrative councils in the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja (Photo AFP)

The National Bureau of Statistics revealed this in its quarterly report released on Monday.

The report noted that the Q1 2019 growth rate represented an increase of 0.12% points, compared to the first quarter of 2018, which recorded real GDP growth rate of 1.89%.

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However, relative to the preceding quarter (fourth quarter of 2018), real GDP growth rate declined by -0.38% points.

The NBS indicates that the general elections held across the country during the first quarter of 2019 may have reflected in the strongest first quarter performance observed since 2015.

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Aggregate GDP stood at N31,794,085.85 million in nominal terms. This aggregate was higher than in the first quarter of 2018, which recorded N28,438,604.23 million, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 11.80%.

The aggregate was, however, lower than in the preceding quarter of N35,230,607.63 million, by -9.75%. The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2019 was higher than the rate recorded in Q1 2018 by 2.54% points.

Oil sector

In the first quarter of 2019, average daily oil production stood at 1.96million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the average daily production of 1.98mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018 by -0.02mbpd but higher than the fourth quarter 2018 production volume by 0.05mbpd.

The level of oil output during the quarter was the highest recorded over the past one year and the second highest since mid 2017

Real GDP growth in the oil sector in the quarter under review was -2.40% (year-on-year), indicating a decrease by -16.43% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

Growth decreased by -0.79% points when compared to Q4 2018, which was -1.62%.

Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 11.60% in Q1 2019. The Oil sector contributed 9.14% to total real GDP in Q1 2019, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2018 but up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 9.55% and 7.06% respectively.

Non Oil sector

The non-oil sector grew by 2.47% in real terms during the reference quarter. This was 1.72% points higher compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but -0.23% points lower than the fourth quarter of 2018.

During the quarter, the sector was driven mainly by Information and communication technology. Other drivers were Agriculture, Transportation and Storage, Trade and Construction.

In real terms, the nonoil sector contributed 90.86% to the nation’s GDP, higher than recorded in the first quarter of 2018 (90.45%) but lower than the fourth quarter of 2018 (92.94%).

Agriculture

The sector grew by 22.58% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q1 2019, showing an increase of 16.78% points from the same quarter of 2018. Compared to the preceding quarter, the nominal GDP growth rate was about 4% points higher. Crop Production remains the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounted for 85% of agriculture GDP. Quarter on quarter, growth stood at -25.27%. Agriculture contributed 19.11% to nominal GDP during the quarter, higher than the recorded contribution in the first quarter of 2018 but lower than recorded in the fourth quarter.

In real terms, the agricultural sector grew by 3.17% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2019, an increase of 0.17% points compared to the corresponding quarter of 2018, and 0.72% points compared to the preceding quarter. During the quarter, the sector contributed 21.91% to real GDP, higher than the contribution in the first quarter of 2018 (21.66%) but lower than the fourth quarter of 2018 (26.15%).

Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing.


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