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Buhari allegedly wins other contestants in Brian Ballard poll

Barely 48 hours to the presidential election, many reports of one party who has a better chance of winning in one particular zone across top geopolitical area in Nigeria have been making rounds online.

Erstwhile Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and Former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari
Atiku and Buhari

However, recent reports from Ballard partners, an international company allegedly hired by PDP to evaluate and determine their chances of winning.

Reports have it that indigenes in certain areas in the country were randomly questioned about their views on the current government and their choice candidate.

The figure generated shows that the incumbent president has a far better chance of retaining his position as the national Head.

The interview which was carried out in the field between January 3, 2018 and February 2, 2019 shows Buhari leading with 9 points (51% / 42%). Those who were classified as ‘Undecided’ garnered 4% while others scored a total of 3%.

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This leaves Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate for PDP and his team with more than enough work to do.

Below is the overall report purportedly sent to a PDP Chieftain.

  1. Buhari is leading the vote with 9 points (51% / 42%). Undecided’s are at 4% and other will score a total of 3%. So, Buhari cannot be stopped.
  2. Voters generally approve of how Buhari has been handling his job and have positive view towards him.
  3. Voters generally do not like Atiku because of his personality. Poor for Buhari, middle class for Atiku – but poor are the majority.
  4. Many people are disappointed with the choice they have: 19% of PVC holders said they don’t see the reason to vote.
  5. No other candidate is going to get up to 2%.
  6. About 87% of APC supporters endorse Buhari, but only 71% of PDP supporters allegedly endorse Atiku.
  7. South-South and South-East which were supposed to be the Atiku’s regional strongholds are not as much negative towards Buhari as where expected.

Methodology

  1. Interviews were carried out in the field between January 3, 2018 and February 2, 2019.

Data collection method: face-to-face interviews.

  1. Sample size: 12 654 interviews with an average of 342 in each state and FCT.
  2. The overall margin of error is ±0.87% at 95% confidence level (±1.1% at 99% confidence level).
  3. Sample stratification: 3-level geographical stratification according to the official INEC data of voters distribution with random selection of households and respondents.
  4. In each state not less than 250 respondents were interviewed, afterwards the data were weighted according to the voter’s distribution.
  5. Dropout of the respondents: only those who have voters card were interviewed.
  6. Interviews: native to the state in which they were working or neighboring state with the same dominant language; each one had two training sessions and test task.
  7. Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding up.

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