HomeBusiness Financial recession: Any threat to Nigerian economy?
Financial recession: Any threat to Nigerian economy?
Written by JOHN NWOKOCHA
Sunday, 12 October 2008
Nigerians, monentary ecnomic analysts in the main have been reacting differently to the financial crisis hitting the Wall streets in the US, Britain and now some countries in Europe as the phenomenon appears a potential danger for the Nigerian economy
Magnus
DR Magnus Kpakol DG, NAPEP: Obviously that is a hreat But I think there are many things that have contributed to that We have to first of all examine those things and try to solve those things Some of the problems are what I call spill over effect Any time you have this kind of crisis you should always worry about contingent, even if it is not real contingent And by real contingent
I mean a situation where there is a real connection between our market and the advanced economy, which is not quite balanced because we don’t have that much exposure especially with regard to portfolio investments.
But with the Foreign Direct Investments that we have you can not quickly dissolve those things and carry them back with you. So, the exposure is limited, but there is a psychological contingent that you can have. Now you look like the other country and therefore if that country is suffering people think also you migth suffer
So, if we start to look at the effect in South Africa, Brazil and Mexico as a result of what is happening on Wall Street, then we have to begin to feel a bit concerned for the fact that we may look like South Africa Otherwise I don’t see where we are likely to suffer especially in real economy from the crisis in US in the short term But in terms of psychological contingent we have to watch it and see how we give assurances to the market and investors about the stability of our market.
Alhaji Kasimu Garba Kurfi securities and funds market analyst: Well the crisis and its impact on our economy serve us a good lesson in the sense that no serious government anywhere in the world can have a meaningful development without addressing the capital and monetary issue. Therefore since the west has addressed the issue in their capital market it is a must for our government to design a roadmap for our capital market in case of spill over effect.
Although there is a crisis in the Western capital market, in our own case it’s lack of confidence. The government must intervene by investing the excess crude oil revenue in the market or watch the foreign investors buy our companies at a give away prices. The lack of confidence is caused by the utterances of our financial regulators. What is going on in the west gives opportunity to foreign investors to remain where they know better until the market recovers.
Gov. Isa Yuguda: Well you see today the entire world is wired. The global economy today is tied together. There is no how the economies of America, Britain and Europe would be in crisis without affecting seriously on the developing economies like ours. Certainly we expect a very serious impact on our economy. And I believe that our finance managers at the very top levels should be preparing for that because eventually it will pounce on our market. We should also develop mitigants against the negative effects of the down turn that will come our way as a result of the meltdown in the west.
Alhaji Saliu Yinusa, special adviser on budget and planning, Adamawa State government: As regards our capital market it was affected about four months earlier before the US situation manifested, so we already knew that we are in trouble. When about six banks went down in US, the same thing happened in England, where the Bank of Scotland was hit and in Germany so, the vibration has already started.
Our government should be aware that we know that what it was doing premised on a false foundation. The government has been deceiving our investors. You bought a share today at N5 in six months time it becomes N60 there is no place in the world this can happen.
You are telling our investors that when you invest here you will get 700 per cent. This is wrong. They should’ve been telling the investors in six months time you will get five or 10 per cent when you invest. SEC has said it has 8-point agenda to address the crisis. But in addition the national assembly should make legislation to penalise people running our financial institutions. Government should not lose money.
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