PDP Guber Showdown: Beyond One Man One Vote
By Emmanuel Aziken, Political Editor, Tony Nyong, AbdulSalam Muhammad, Kolade Larewaju, Suzan Edeh, Demola Akinyemi, Gbenga Oke, Jimitota Onoyume, Aliyu Dangida, Samuel Oyadongha, Abdallah el-Kurebe, Wole Mosadomi and Peter Duru
The revelation from a senior official of one of the Niger Delta States more than one year ago was revealing. In an informal chat, the official had disclosed that governance as it is known was practically over then for the two and a half year administration which was in its first term.
“All we are preoccupied with now is the politics of re-election,” the senior official a serving commissioner said. The politics of re-election inevitably comes to a near climax this weekend as the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP holds gubernatorial primaries in about 32 States where gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held this April.
The gubernatorial primaries for the States under the control of the PDP would be remarkable as winners of the primaries are themselves almost sure of being shoo-ins for the main elections given the commanding machinery of the PDP in the States.
Nowdo: PDP Chairman
The PDP electoral guidelines giving the governors commanding influence in the selection of delegates has given the governors an advantage in the gubernatorial race. It is thus not surprising that many die in the wool PDP members interested in the gubernatorial pie had to relocate to other political parties to actualize their ambitions.
Mr. Timi Alaibe (Bayelsa), Senator Ifeanyi Ararume (Imo), Hon. Bawa Bwari (Niger), Senator Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun), John Akpanudoedehe (Akwa Ibom) who were one time or the other notable PDP chieftains would not be participating in the gubernatorial primaries having seen the formidable hands of the serving governors against their aspirations.
The exit of the above party chieftains is undoubtedly reflective of the do or die attitude of the incumbent governors who it is said would leave nothing to ensure their return to office.
It is as such not surprising that a number of serving PDP governors would be returned unopposed at the primaries. One of such governors that is likely to be a shoo-in this weekend is Governor Ibrahim Shema of Katsina State whose fortunes remarkably changed for the better with the death of President Umaru Yar‘Adua last year.
The expected opposition from members of the Yar‘Adua inner circle such as Dr. Sayaadi Ruma, the erstwhile Minister of Agriculture and Senator Garba Lado has expectedly fizzled out.
Shema like most other sitting governors have practically run their opponents out of town. This weekend’s gubernatorial primaries are only the first step in the efforts of the first term governors towards self-preservation. Following that they face the prospect of a more balanced fight from opposition party candidates where the neutrality of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC would play the key role to the survival of the governors.
Who dares Yuguda in Bauchi?
In Bauchi the battle line is drawn between the incumbent, Isa Yuguda and two opponents in the persons of Senator Baba Tela and a one_time member of the Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Comission, Ahmed Iliyasu.
Remarkably, Iliyasu is believed not to pose a strong opposition to Yuguda and it is even insinuated in some circles that he is fronting for the Governor and will eventually withdraw his aspiration on the last day. Tela on the other hand is regarded as a very strong and formidable contender as he is being backed and financed by a consortium of politicians in the state led by the SGF, Mahmud Yayale Ahmed a development that has made the war a bit fierce for the Governor who is capitalising on the strength of incumbency to get the ticket at the end of the day.
The emergence of Tela as one of the aspirants under the platform of the ruling PDP was surprising to some but not to political analysts who saw his candidacy as long over due considering the fact the political alliance between Governor Yuguda and the SGF broke down the moment the Governor declared his intention to come back into the PDP fold about two years ago.
Another force against Yuguda is that led by the Minister of FCT, Senator Mohammed Bala Duguri who was once a personal aide to the Governor during his days as a Minister under the former President Olusegun Obasanjo led administration. However, the politics of permanent interests caused a divorce of the duo.
Besides the Bala Mohammed force, the re_emergence of the immediate past Governor of the State, Ahmadu Adamu Mu’azu is also bearing pressure on the incumbent governor.
In spite of all these forces Yuguda has remained undaunted as he has gone on with his aspiration of a second term unperturbed winning the support and sympathy of people on a daily basis a development that has made many in the state to reckon with his candidacy.
If the results of the primaries as well as the ward congresses are anything to go by it can conveniently be said that Yuguda is at advantage because the same delegates who have supported his candidates in the primaries will elect the gubernatorial flag bearer.
Only recently Senator Tela threatened to quit the race because according to him there is no assurance that the exercise will be free and fair considering the way and manner the last ward congresses were held.
Walking in Oloye’s shadow in Kwara
The gubernatorial contest in Kwara State is keen and unpredictable based on the unfolding political development that has set the famous Saraki family at war with itself.
The capacity of the ruling PDP to retain the governorship seat it first occupied in 2003 is in doubt.
Reason? The Dr. Olusola Saraki, the same godfather who directed his supporters to join PDP for the purpose of enthroning his son and outgoing governor, Dr Bukola Saraki has given the same directive that his supporters should move out of PDP to Allied Congress Party of Nigeria. His directive this time is to enable him enthrone Senator Gbemisola Saraki his daughter and younger sister to the outgoing governor as Governor of the State in 2011. It would be historical in two fronts as it would be the first emergence of a female governor through an election and the first transfer of power within a family in any of the nation’s 36 Government Houses.
The realization of the gubernatorial ambition of the sitting PDP senator in her own party looks very dicey based on the rising number of aspirants in the party even when the second republic senate leader had publicly endorsed her candidature in his tradition of installing governors in the state.
But retaining the seat by PDP in the state in 2011 will be an uphill task as more members are reportedly trooping into the new party, even as the state publicity secretary of PDP Alh Isiaka Dan Meiromu was suspended on Tuesday over a press statement that the exit of the second republic senate leader will not affect the fortune of the party.
As at the press time, there were about twelve aspirants namely, Engineer Sunday Adebayo Babalola, a petroleum engineer based in Lagos, Alh Yekini Alabi, Senator Suleiman Makanjuola Ajadi both former gubernatorial aspirants, and Hon Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, a member of house of representatives in lagos state who just defected to PDP from ACN and Chief Theophilus Bamigboye former military administrator in Bauchi and Osun states.
Others are a serving senator Mohammed Ahmed from the North Central, Hon Isa Bio Ibrahim the former minister of sports who recently resigned to pursue his ambition and Professor Shuaib Oba Abdulrahim former vice chancellor of University of Ilorin and two serving commissioners Barrister Rasaq Atunwa of the ministry of finance and his counterpart in the ministry of economic development, Alh Abdulfatah Ahmed and Engineer Wole Oke.
Meanwhile the ambition of Senator Gbemisola Saraki who was also screened by the PDP to contest the primaries is gaining prominence by the day. Given her brother’s alleged opposition to her aspiration, she is also poised to slug it out with whoever emerges as the PDP flag bearer using the platform of ANCP. Further investigation reveal that majority of active politicians in the state are Muslims and sympathizers of the second republic senate leader, who might not be too disposed to the zoning arguments now being articulated by some who want the office of governor moved away from Saraki’s Central senatorial district.
Whichever way the pendulum swings, the outcome of the forthcoming primaries of the PDP will give a clearer picture of whether the party will retain the state or the Kingmaker will further prove to the skeptics that he still holds all the aces.
In Kano it’s Kwankwaso’s to lose
The PDP gubernatorial primaries in Kano is already a done deal for Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the erstwhile governor of the State and a former Minister of Defence. Kwankwaso who controls the party structure is far ahead of other contestants such as Senator Muhammad Adamu Bello, Col Habibu Shuaibu, and Kabiru Kamakasa. These co_travelers in Kano PDP guber race know too well that the race is won and lost and what remains is fierce struggle over who would clinch the second position believing that in the event Kwankwaso is prevailed on to stand down as witnessed in the 2007 the runner up could claim the ticket.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
Kwankwaso is the leader of the domineering and disciplined political clan known as the Kwankwasiyya group in Kano. His credential is intimidating and as things stand, he is PDP personified. His word as far Kano PDP is concern is final and is often obeyed to the letter.
Kwankwaso was swept out of power by ANPP in the 2003 general election. But since then, his influence and power has continued to rise and was once described by late Abubakar Rimi as a ‘gentleman difficult to work with’.
His group is seeking for his return to power barely 7 years after he served for four years and they are making a lot impact. Kwankwaso’s major impediment is the elite within and outside his party who see him as an emperor. Kwankwaso was the major beneficiary of the recent reconciliation brokered by Vice President Namadi Sambo. He was described by Abba Dabo, former Secretary to Kano state Government as ‘a tough guy, experienced and a Field Marshall adored by rivals’ in Kano politics.
Col. Habibu Shuaibu (rtd)
A former Military Administrator of Plateau and Niger states, Colonel Habibu Shuaibu is an unrepentant acolyte of erstwhile Military President, General Ibrahim Babangida. He was exposed to baptism of political fire in 2003 when he contested and lost Kano central senatorial election. Col Shuaibu does not align himself with any of the feuding tendencies in the party. He may emerge as a compromise candidate in the event of a logjam between the Garkuwa and Kwankwasiyya groups. Unfortunately, Col Shuaibu’s major headache is Kwankwaso who may find him too sophisticated to be trusted, no thanks to his clout and the stupendous riches at his disposal.
Sen Muhammad Adamu Bello
A sitting Senator first elected under the platform of the All Nigerian Peoples Party, ANPP in 2007, he defected to the PDP a few months ago on the basis of what he said were constraints that barred him from nursing a ‘legitimate ambition’ within the fold of his former party.
Bello cuts an image of a gentleman, easy going, and is largely seen by pundits as a consummate strategist. He shared a close relationship with General Buhari, and he is also at home with the Babangida camp.
His popularity in Kano was demonstrated in 2007 when he scored higher votes than what the incumbent Governor scored in the gubernatorial election in his own election to the Senate.
As it stands now, Senator Bello is the only governorship aspirant in Kano that enjoys wide support across party lines due largely to his style of politics. He has empowered so many youths and the major impediment between him and PDP ticket is Kwankwaso, the much touted godfather of Kano politics.
Kabiru Kamakasa
Kamakasa is a recurring decimal in Kano PDP. He vied and contested with Kwankwaso in the 2007 election and made insignificant impact in the race. He, however, succeeded in making a statement that the little ones had equal opportunity. Kamakasa is a loyal party man, little is known about his wealth. He derived his followership from the fanatical supporters of the Kwankwasiyya who see in him a perfect partner. He is also in the race to make a statement like he has done in the past.
In Katsina, Shema looks beyond primaries
Until lately, the politics of who gets what in Katsina State chapter of Peoples Democratic Party were within the wraps of the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the 13th Nigerian leader who joined his ancestor on May 5, 2010.
Yar’Adua’s death has therefore thrown the state open to leading lights in the party along two divides.
In the battle of wits, are those considered to be part of Yar’Adua’s kitchen cabinet such as Abba Sayyadi Ruma, Tanimu Kurfi and host of others. This group is obviously playing the catch-up in the power game. On the other side is Governor Ibrahim Shehu Shema, who captured the party and assumed the position of godfather.
It is therefore not surprising to political pundits that the January 9 governorship primaries has been narrowed to a one-man contest in favour of Shema.
During the dying days of Yar’Adua, the Ruma-led camp attempted to pull the rug off the feat of Governor Shema. The plan to hijack the structures of the party. If it had succeeded, it would have hampered Shema’s second term bid
Governor Shema fought back through the instrumentality of his office and handed a rude technical knock out to the men of power who had hidden under the paraphernalia of presidential powers to cause trouble.
The death of the ex-president therefore helped tremendously to reposition Governor Shema as the undisputed godfather leaving those that are not comfortable to look elsewhere.
As it stands in Katsina PDP, Shema is looking beyond the primaries, and had been working on a working strategy that will return him to the Government House in the next general election.
Shema, who took over the leadership of Katsina State from the late Yar’Adua as Governor in 2007, is perceived as a ruthless gentleman’ who knows his onions well.
.The former Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice to Yar’Adua is often described as a ‘dividend of continuity’ following his outstanding success on areas of infrastructure and human capital development. The former PDP National Vice Chairman, North West zone is a consummate strategist. He enjoys a sweeping support across different strata of class and currently has the backing of the members of the Katsina State House of Assembly, Local Council chairmen, and traditional rulers from Katsina and Daura emirates and recently, the arrow head of opposition in the state, Engr Nura Khalil.
Litigation causes anxiety in Abia
In Abia State, the battle would have been easy for Governor Theodore Orji but for the position taken by Chief Ikechi Emenike, who is in court over the dissolution of the executive committee of the party in the state. The dissolution threw in the Sen. Emma Nwaka -leadership. The Emenike camp is formidable and cannot be wished away just like that.
Emenike, like the governor, bought nomination form and both had officially declared to run for the ticket of the party for Abia State.
However, Emenike did not appear for screening of aspirants because of his court matter and his teeming supporters did not recognize the Nwaka_led executive committee. They are backed by the oldest BoT member from the state, Prince Benjamin Apugo. What will become of Abia guber primaries is a matter of conjecture.
In any case, the state leadership of the party is seriously preparing for the Sunday primaries. At least in the absence of Chief Emenike, Governor Orji will face one person in the person of Chief Anthony Enwereuzor who had earlier left the PDP when the governor joined the party. He had even gone a step further then and invited journalists to his Ekenna GRA, Aba home where he declared to run for the governorship of the state under the platform of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA. So it was a surprise when his name cropped up lately.
In fact it was rumoured on Wednesday that he was going to step down for Governor Orji.
Asked for clarifications, Enwereuzor confirmed that he had left APGA and rejoined PDP and that he bought the nomination form to contest for governorship of Abia State.
On whether he was stepping down for Governor Orji, he said: “The primaries is on Sunday. If you don’t see me that day, you can now draw your conclusions”.
For the other aspirant, Chief Henry Atuloma, a realizable source said that he had since dropped his aspiration. “He has since abandoned them”, the source said.
Therefore going by what is on ground and if the suit instituted by the Emenike group did not stop the exercise, the battle might be a walkover for Governor Orji.
Tension grips aspirants in Akwa Ibom
There is tension among contenders and party faithful in Akwa Ibom State following events that trailed the battle for delegates.
The major contenders in the guber race are the incumbent governor, Chief Godswill Akpabio of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP; Mr. Larry Esin of the Congress for Progressive Chnage (CPC); Sen John James Udoedeghe, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN); retired Group Capt. Sam Enwang, All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP); Mr. Idoerenyin Umo of the Labour Party; Imo Udoh (PDP); Mr. Frank Okon (PDP) and Prof. Hogan Ekpo, pioneer Vice Chancellor Akwa Ibom State University.
Issues dominating the campaigns are mostly that of insecurity, bothering on kidnapings, assassinations, intimidation, ethnicity, zoning and proper use of funds collected from the Federal Government Allocations.
But all indications point to the incumbent Governor Akpabio winning the race as his performance in the last three years seems to have endeared him to the people despite pockets of opposition here and there.
The ruling PDP is everywhere and the influence is such that other parties will have to work very hard to make an impact.
Greed has prominently worked against the PDP and their loyalists who at times throw integrity to the wind in attempt to satisfy their selfish ends.
Prof. Ekpo, who hails from Etinam Local Council, recently flooded the state with his posters but not much seems to have been done in terms of grassroots sensitization and mobilization for the game which is largely that of numbers.
Sen. Udoedeghe, a former minister, was the first person to oppose Akpabio even when he was the campaign manager for the incumbent in 2007. He has sworn not to allow the governor return to the Hilltop Mansion He is from Uyo, the state capital and seems to also draw their sympathy. It is to be seen if his efforts would help him scale the preliminary PDP hurdle.
Sam Ewang, the retired former Military Governor of Ogun and Rivers states, is in the race and is expected to up his impact in terms of clout and followership to scale through. He also has the problem of strength since his party has been bedeviled with infighting.
Imo Udo, a former special adviser to ex-governor Victor Attah on Political and Legislative Affairs, appears to be the man to watch. How he got himself cleared by the party is still a miracle to some observers, who believed that he could hardly afford even the money to buy nomination form. Although he does not seem to have the kind of popularity that one expects to see him through the hurdle, one does not have to underrate such persons because he may actually spring a surprise. He is the only other candidate slugging it out with the governor in PDP.
Mr. Idorenyin Umoh from Ibiono was in the Third Republic of the State House of Assembly.
He has a wonderful blueprint but it may be easier for a carmel to pass through the eye of a needle than for him to win the race with very lean resources.
Akpabio is very strategically favoured by both the incumbency position and resources. He has also impressed most politicians in the state by his developmental strides and achievements. Besides, Akpabio seems to have started right from the day he entered the office to prepare himself for the return and therefore had deployed all efforts – human and resources towards winning the election.
A solo run for Yakowa in Kaduna
The forthcoming People’s Democratic Party (PDP) governorship primaries in Kaduna may be a walkover for the incumbent Governor, Mr. Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa, following the disqualification of one of the aspirants, Alhaji Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi.
The party’s screening committee had disqualified Hunkuyi from contesting the primaries over “incomplete tax clearance certificates” and he had proceeded to the Appeals Committee which upheld the earlier verdict of the screening committee.
Until the disqualification, Hunkuyi, a former Commissioner for Finance in the state who had also contested the governorship primaries in 2007, was regarded as the greatest threat to Yakowa, given what Hunkuyi’s supporters describe as his political sagacity, when compared to Yakowa, a career civil servant who became governor by “accident” following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.
Moreover, the predominant Muslim northern part of Kaduna state had reportedly relied on Hunkuyi to retrieve the governorship seat from Yakowa because the coveted position is believed to have been zoned to the area and had the immediate past governor who is currently the Vice President, Mohammed Namadi Sambo, not been elevated, he would have continued as governor till 2015 when the position was expected to go to the Christian southern Kaduna state, from where Yakowa comes.
The Suleiman Hunkuyi Campaign Organization had faulted the outcome of the screening exercise arguing that the disqualification of Hunkuyi confirms its suspicion that some people “are uncomfortable with the awesome machinery of the Sulaiman Hunkuyi 2011 Campaign Organization, as well as the towering popularity of its aspirant for the office of the governor of Kaduna state.”
Hunkuyi who has since described his disqualification as the greatest act of injustice has apparently resigned to fate, taking the matter before the court of the Almighty God, according to him.
Although Mrs Mairo Habib Baturiya also passed the screening hurdle, there are indications that another aspirant from the northern zone, Alhaji Idris Shuaibu Mikati, is warming up to give Yakowa a run for his money, as the people see in him a possible replacement for Hunkuyi.
Mikati who is the Deputy Managing Director of Dangote Group of Companies had equally contested the PDP 2007 gubernatorial primaries in the state. When the party’s screening committee late last month gave him the nod to contest the forthcoming primaries, Mikati embarked on a visit to the 23 local government areas, meeting with delegates and soliciting for their support.
“I want to become your governor in order to develop Kaduna state,” Mikati told some of the delegates from the central and northern zones, adding that, “I am not seeking your support and mandate because I want to make name. I believe that someone has to stand up to challenge the social injustice in the state, by taking the lead. I equally know that I cannot do it all alone because I believe in collective responsibility. I believe in government of the people, by the people and for the people. This is why I need your support and I do not believe the people’s mandate should be stolen.”
