The 2011 elections and some unresolved issues

By Adisa Adeleye
If we are to be guided by media reports, everyone is set for the eventful year, 2011 – the year of all important elections.  Even President Goodluck Jonathan appears more enthusiastic than others when he cautioned the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) against any form of failure when he emphatically said that, ‘gone are the days when those in charge of electoral or other responsibilities will use such phrases as ‘our hands are tied‘ for justification or failure‘.

President Jonathan in his usual mood of seriousness and urgency does remark every time that, ‘the first thing of interest to Nigerians now is a free and fair election.  Our votes must count‘.  As Nigerians have noted in the past, elections could be free in the sense of orderly voting and counting but not fair in the collation of voting figures and the announcement of actual results.

At the point of repeating myself in comments already made or in articles written before, I would like to examine briefly the genesis of electoral malpractices in Nigeria and their refinement in the post-military era (which suggests that elections under the military were normally free if not absolutely fair).  The intention is to access the effectiveness of what is on ground against the ravaging scourge of electoral malpractices.

The Webster‘s Dictionary of the English Language classifies rigging (to manipulate dishonestly) as of unknown origin.  However, going by post-independence Nigerian political history, it is safe to conclude that ‘rigging an election‘ could have either a Nigerian maternity or sure paternity.

Thus rigging could be encountered in different phases:  impersonation; over voting; voting by the under aged (less than 18 years); inflated voters‘ registers; monetary inducement to voters and intimidation of voters by party thugs or over-zealous security officials.  Many Nigerians often become apprehensive and agitated at the presence of heavily armed security officials at polling areas.

From experience, the presence of soldiers or policemen at polling booths would tend to deter willing voters to exercise their franchise.  Other features of malpractices noticed in the past were falsification of results where elections were actually held, allocation of results where elections were not held; voting in unauthorized polling booths; forceful removal, stuffing and damage of ballot boxes and collation of fictitious figures.

In recent elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007, electoral malpractices appeared in different guises leading to disqualification of eligible voters and candidates; appointment of card carrying party members as presiding officers and refusal of partisan electoral officials to count or endorse results of validly cast votes especially in areas opposed to the ruling party.

At some polling booths, voting materials would arrive late and officials would disappear into the air like ghosts and reappear at the collation centres with stuffed ballot boxes.  Often, faked results would be announced by the designated electoral officials.

It could amount to a waste of valuable time to continue to catalogue the woes of electoral frauds in the past elections in the country except for the fact that mere repetition could probably guide the new electoral officers.  It is generally agreed that the conduct of a free and fair election on the same day and at the same time in a country like Nigeria where infrastructures are poor with primitive and doubtful logistics could be extremely difficult.

Even with the most sophisticated equipment, it would require officials with minds of God and divine intervention to expect a fair result.  Everything in the country is valued in terms of money and money is not easy to come by.  The lack of adequate funding or appropriate release of funds at the required time had led to unwholesome compromise of electoral officers with the ruling parties in several states in the past.

Prof. Attahiru Jega, the new Chairman of INEC has mentioned a sum between N55 to N75 billion that would be required to produce a new Voters Register being demanded by Nigerians for a smooth election.  An important point to be resolved is the proper funding of electoral processes.  The 2010 Federal Deficit Budget which is constantly being besieged by supplementary requirements by the Executive is in the fear of under implementation (as usual with past budgets).  Where is the money to fund the elections coming from?

Except there are drastic reductions in wasteful expenditure on doubtful projects, legislative expenses and allowances of public office holders – areas appearing too sacrosanct to touch, the funding may be difficult.
Assuming that the fund for elections is sourced from the 2010 Budget, the time frame might appear too short to provide the equipment and the logistics necessary for a flawless election desirable.  Although Prof. Jega appears optimistic within the time limit, experience has proved to the contrary.

Tardy release of funds and poor public official reaction to necessary policies might tend to drive otherwise clean electoral officers into the hands of sitting governors and corrupt party officials.

A more important aspect of the 2011 elections is the time-table which according to the amended Constitution should start in January 2011.  The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) and other civil societies have rightly called for the shift in the date of elections, which to many, is reasonably based on the fact that if we are having it this time at such a huge cost (about N75 billion), we must HAVE IT RIGHT, even if it means postponement indefinitely.

To many Nigerians, the call is not ‘ incredulous and unstable‘ but soundly reasonable.  It is even doubtful if those who amended the constitution had followed due process as noted by Prof. Nwabueze, the Constitutional Expert.

A mere fearsome problem that could disturb the unity of the country is the unresolved issue of ‘zoning‘- an admirable PDP‘s agreement to promise national unity which is now turning to become an albatross.  The implication of Dr. Jonathan‘s defeat on PDP‘s platform at the next elections (if he chooses to contest) could be so devastating as to tear the country apart.

One would believe that the leaders of the ruling party realize that the objectives of electoral reformers are to remove PDP governments in Nigeria through votes.  Also, the supporters of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan for President would be advised to cast their net wide enough to embrace other parties for him to wear the toga of undisputed National leader.

To me and the people of my thinking, any election that excludes the participation of independent candidates might appear FREE BUT NOT FAIR.  Why the hurry? We should wait for the resolution (through Conference) of the contending issues.