2011: Why Jonathan hasn’t declared

President Goodluck Jonathan

By Emma Amaize, Regional Editor, South-South
Why South South Govs met in Secret, The reelection deal with South South Govs, S/East, S/West PDP to endorse Jonathan
THE reason why President Goodluck Jonathan has refused to make public his ambition to contest the 2011 presidential election, despite suffocating pressure on him to do so, in the past two months, is that he wants to be certain of at least, 50 per cent of the votes of his party’s delegates to the forthcoming National Convention from across the six geo-political zones before his declaration, Saturday Vanguard can now reveal.

Some  South-South leaders who were at the Monday meeting in Port-Harcourt where the  South-South governors and leaders formally  adopted  President Jonathan for the 2011 election confided this exclusively to Saturday Vanguard.

“So many leaders from different parts of the country, including two ex-Presidents and governors have asked President Jonathan to run but he does not want to contest and fail. That is why he wants  to be sure of the delegates, who control them,  their number in every state of the country and be sure of a victory strategy before throwing his heart into the ring”, our source said.

“Also, Mr. President is mindful that God has been the One leading him since he started his political career and wants to be sure that he is not going against the will of God. He had been told before now that if it is God’s plan for him, the process will naturally fall in and that he should not force himself to contest, otherwise, he will not succeed”, the source added.

It was learnt that political strategists working on Jonathan 2011 project and who have been liaising with their Northern , South-West and South-East counterparts  reported that an inroad had been made in the Northern states and it was time for the South-South, which is the President’s zone to formally adopt him so that political horse-trading could start in earnest.

We gathered that the former chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees (BOT), Chief Tony Anenih, who came out boldly to announce that zoning was dead in the party, played a crucial role in galvanizing the South-South leadership zone to meet and take a common stand on Jonathan presidency.

He had the support of the former Federal Commissioner for Information, Chief Edwin Clark and other leaders after which the governors, who are regarded as the political leaders were called upon to give expression to the desire of the people.

The governors took total charge thereafter and decided that 40 delegates should be invited to the meeting per state.
Senator Aniete Okon from Akwa-Ibom state who was in Port-Harcourt, however, told Saturday Vanguard, “What matters is not who convened the meeting. The issue of adopting Dr. Jonathan for 2011 was long overdue and the people were waiting for it.”

It was reliably learnt, on the other hand, that back home in Edo state, the matter reverberated, as members of the camp of the two-time governor of the old Bendel State Dr. Samuel Osaigbovo Ogbemudia were not in the Port-Harcourt meeting.

“As a matter of fact”, said one of the South-South leaders, “Information about the meeting was secretive. In one of the states, the governor called some persons by himself and some others were contacted through some other persons to get set for the Port-Harcourt meeting. We did not know what the meeting was all about up till Sunday when some of us arrived in Port-Harcourt. But we know it is about Jonathan.”

South-South governors are expected to play a fundamental part in the project by getting their colleagues from the other zones to influence their respective state delegates to support Jonathan.

In doing this, Saturday Vanguard was told that some compromises may have been made to the South-South governors to guarantee their re-election before embarking on the project.

For instance, Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan of Delta State is having a strong challenge from Chief Clark, who is interested in pushing forward the present Minister of Niger-Delta, Elder Godswill Orubebe to contest the 2011 governorship against him. While

Clark supports Jonathan presidency, he is not in favour of Uduaghan’s governorship and such differences had to be sorted out before they could work together as a team for a South-South dream.

An unconfirmed source said President Jonathan would have bowed to political expediency to support Uduaghan for 2011, while Elder Orubebe should retain his position as Minister.

In Rivers state, Governor Rotimi Amaechi was said not to be facing any strong challenge in securing a re-nomination ticket. But in Bayelsa state, the president’s home state, the ball is in his court to determine whether to support the re-election of Governor Timipre Sylva, who is now working day and night for him after the initial faux pax when Jonathan was Vice President.

There is no strong contention about the re-election of the Cross-River state governor, Liyel Imoke, who is the chairman of the South-South Governor’s Forum and in Akwa-Ibom, Governor Godswill Akpabio is shaking off opponents to lay claim to the re-election ticket.

The case of Governor Adams Oshiomhole of Edo state is different because he is in Action Congress and he is not against President Jonathan running in 2011. But he cannot join at his moment to proclaim Jonathan, who is going to be a PDP flag-bearer if he succeeded when his own party would also present a candidate.

Our source asserted, “Frankly, nobody seems to know the deal that the governors have struck with President Jonathan but what is clear is that they are very much involved in the project now and they will be the contact with their colleagues in other parts of the country, which they are already doing”.

What became the communiqué of the meeting on Monday were essentially decisions that were reached at a caucus meeting of the leaders and governors the previous night before the meeting”, he said.

According to him, “Because of the ambiguity, some of us did not want to speak at the meeting, we wanted to be sure because the meeting was hurriedly convened, as some people were under pressure to ensure the South-South takes such a position quick.

I tried to find out and I was told that since some Northerners had taken a position supporting Jonathan, the South-West people said the South-South, where Jonathan hails from has not come out, and so, it became expedient to take a common stand. They did not want a case of individual persons adopting him; they wanted a more comprehensive position”.

The source, however, said, “We are all in support of Jonathan presidency; after all, it was our declaration in Calabar in 2003 that the South-South should produce the next president. But I don’t like this idea of our BOT members, Chief Anenih and Prof Jerry Gana, who is one of the leaders from the North saying that zoning is dead. That should not be the strategy.

“The fact is that zoning is only a gentleman’s agreement, we cannot say it is not in the party’s constitution, but, by divine intervention, God has changed it in favour of the South-South with the death of former President Umaru Yar’Adua. The present chairman of PDP, Okwesileze Nwodo cannot say that he is not aware that he came in by zoning. Why he (Nwodo) from the same South-East as Chief Vincent Ogbulafor if it was not zoned to their region- Was it not the governors of the South-East that met and brought him out. Were we not living witnesses to the time the South-East had exclusive preserve of the Senate President?

The South-South leader said he was of the opinion that the governors were under pressure to convene the meeting, adding, “Well, let us watch and see how those who have control of delegates are going to use their powers.

Prof Benedict Ijomah from Delta State , who presented a position paper on the imperatives of a South-South president in one of the meetings of the zone in 2005, said the South-South governors were not under pressure to do what they did in Port-Harcourt, adding, “They only keyed with the popular feelings in the country”.

He said the South-South took the right step by adopting Jonathan in Port-Harcourt because that is what all Nigerians want and if ex-President Yar’Adua was alive, both of them would have continued under the same ticket till 2015, after which, Jonathan would seek his own mandate in 2015.”

Prof Ijomah urged the North to support the South-South in its bid to produce a President in 2011, as one good turn deserved another.
Prof Julius Ihonvbere, a former Special Adviser to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, also told Saturday Vanguard that he did not think the governors and leaders of the South-South zone were under pressure to adopt President Jonathan, pointing out before they did so, July 26, in Port-Harcourt, the North and some governors had only made statements calling on Jonathan to contest.

He said if anything, it was becoming the talk in political circle that South-South leadership was slow in making its position clear.
With the formal adoption of President Jonathan on Monday, Prof Ihonvbere said the governors and leaders would strategise to put in place structures and machinery to mobilize delegates for a broad support for Jonathan.

He said, “I don’t see any complication in our next target. It is a straight-forward task to reach out and sell our candidate. He is doing well as President and the international community is comfortable with him.

“It is all about dialogue and conversation with other zones, as soon as he declares his ambition, the South-South will go cracking. There is nothing wrong with what we have done. We are Nigerians expressing our rights that a South-South person in the person of Jonathan should run”, he said.

Commenting on the statements by some Northern politicians that they would pull out of PDP if Jonathan secures the party’s ticket, he said he would regard it as comments made out of anger, saying, “As we sit down to look at the pros and cons of his candidacy, I expect they will understand our position.”

On his part, Senator Aniete Okon said, “The South-South governors and leaders were not under any kind of pressure in adopting President Jonathan on Monday. It is the rational thing to do in the circumstance and such an opportunity does not come every time, so we have to grab it.”

He said it was conventional anywhere that if an incumbent was performing well, he should automatically fly the party’s flag in an election and since President Jonathan has been generally adjudged to have done well and is not constitutionally barred from contesting, the party should give him its mandate for 2011, particularly, as his zone has said it had implicit confidence in him.”

Senator Okon said the Monday episode in Port-Harcourt was an event waiting to happen. His words, “It was a desire in the minds of all South-Southerners, the South-South governors and leaders only gave expression to it.”

He stated, “It is a natural follow-up that relevant committees will be set up for mobilization. That will be done soon, as we wait for President Jonathan to formally accept our call on him and endorsement to contest.”

It is also expected that in due course, the PDP in the South-West and South-East would also come up with formal endorsement and call on Jonathan to contest in 2011.

“It is after such exercise that President Jonathan, having confirmed his support base from his political strategists, would publicly declare his ambition, the source said.