The amnesty jackpot

By Ochereome Nnanna
The amnesty programme of President Umaru Yar’ Adua was a success. This is obviously his biggest achievement so far, even though in Nigeria it pays to withhold praise from politicians.

As the two sides continue their series of talks to address post-amnesty issues, perhaps more will be said about how the people of the oil-producing zones of Nigeria will be plugged into the oil industry as stakeholders. We also hope to hear more about steps that will be taken to develop the area. These, to me, constitute the real post-amnesty issues that will prevent a return to arms.

The various commanders and former warlords also have to be seen for what they now are: Emergent political forces in their respective theatres of operation.

They command the loyalty and the admiration of the local folks who will listen when they speak.

People like Tompolo, Boyloaf, Farrah Dagogo, Ateke Tom, Henry Okah and Dokubo Asari are no longer political “nobodies”. Every one of them has been a specially invited guest of the President.

None of them will call the President’s number without being eagerly given a listening ear. I can see the President excusing himself in the middle of a meeting to answer a call from any of these now and in the near future. They have arrived.

Amnesty for the militants was not an invention of President Yar’ Adua. It had long been on the lips of Niger Delta and Ijaw campaigners who, for years, assured that most of the militants would embrace it.

I find it instructive and interesting that it was not until Mr Timi Alaibe became the Honorary Adviser to the President on Niger Delta Affairs that the President finally bought the idea.

Even more intriguing was the fact that the militants heeded the call to surrender with such alacrity. When something like this happens, it is usually because the source of their sponsorship was probably the one who asked them to give up.

At the end of the day we might find out that Chief Government Ekpemupolo (Tompolo) was telling the truth when he said in recent paid advertisements that some Niger Deltans working with the President know more than they have admitted about those who armed the militants and subverted the oil industry for their selfish ends.

It does not seem to me as though the boys (and girls) accepted the amnesty spontaneously. The bird dancing by the roadside was reacting to a drummer in the bush.

Indeed, the amnesty has turned out to be a big jackpot for all concerned. A friend and colleague of mine here in Vanguard, Hector Igbikiowubo, shocked everyone when, in the middle of an important meeting of editors last week he opened a bag filled with Nigerian flags and started distributing them. It was a gesture whose import was not lost on me.

It told me that the people of the Niger Delta are happy with the way things turned out about the amnesty issue.

The apparent success achieved in the amnesty deal has ensured that the possibility of the JTF turning its guns on local communities in search of militants in an all-out war no longer exists. If indeed the militancy has been effectively shelved the oil industry will be back in full steam and in no distant time Nigeria will regain her sixth position as an oil exporter in the world which she lost to Angola as a result of the militancy.

As a country that depends mainly on oil for her livelihood, rejoining the boom queue is good news for the federal, state and local councils all over the country. Niger Delta will benefit even more because during the disruptions, the oil states lost up to half of their revenue accruing from derivation. Delta State had to resort to some austerity measures.

During the war, development in the theatre of war was impossible. At the height of insecurity linked to the militants, Port Harcourt, Nigeria’s premier oil city almost died. Governor Amaechi told the world that Rivers State had over 100 billion naira locked away in banks rather than being deployed for development.

Everything about the so-called integrated power development came a halt as most of the power plants being constructed are gas-fed, and the saboteurs had found an effective way to cripple its network.

We look forward with hope that the hostilities will not return and that government will do its part of the deal.

I am, however, not sure if useful lessons have been learned. Was it not an irony that the first seminar on the amnesty took place in Kaduna, capital of Northern Nigeria where the hawks that pressed for all-out military action to reclaim the oil industry from the militants come from? Trust him, Chief Edwin Clark, who posits a traditional alliance between the Ijaw and the North, was there. During the conflict, the “alliance” was put to test and it failed.

The rush to Kaduna so soon after the surrender of the militants warns me that we are once again caught up in our typical “Naija” euphoria during which our opponents score against us.

This is not a time to be carried away. This is a time to hold people to their words and focus them to their commitment to reward surrender with genuine rehabilitation and reconstruction. Once Nigeria becomes comfortable again she will forget about her commitments. It then requires a return to arms to force her to pay attention.